Is there any weakening of glass fiber periodicity, the reasons behind it, and how to interpret it in the future?
In the medium term, the overall periodicity of the industry will weaken because of the growth of downstream demand and the increase of supply side barriers.
The segmented fields have their own cycles, which have calmed the demand fluctuation of the whole glass fiber industry. Although subdivided application fields, such as building materials affected by real estate development and electronic appliances affected by macroeconomic cycle, the demand of emerging application fields (automobile lightweight, wind power and 5g) has exploded in recent years, driving the growth of glass fiber industry.
The industry concentration will be further concentrated in the future, the bottleneck of small enterprise development will be more obvious, the supply shock will not be released quickly in a short time, and the cycle attribute will be weakened. Combined with the data of Zhuo Chuang information and the company's announcement, if the global production capacity of 8.76 million tons in 2020 is calculated, the current global market share of glass fiber industry CR3 will reach 46%, Cr5 will reach 63%, and it is expected that the concentration will be further improved in the next few years. The development bottleneck of small enterprises is big, mainly due to the obvious improvement of the overall barriers of the industry, including the increase of capital cost (including the price of rhodium powder, ore, etc.) and the technical level (the gap of comprehensive energy consumption per ton yarn is relatively large). Large glass fiber enterprises have strong competitive advantages, whether from the perspective of capital strength or cost control. In a word, the oligopoly competition situation of glass fiber is expected to last for a long time. The capacity expansion is mainly dominated by large enterprises, and the supply release is more rational and orderly, so the cycle attribute is weakened.