Good supply and demand pattern of glass fiber in China in the future
Glass fiber is a kind of inorganic non-metallic material, which has the advantages of light weight, high strength, high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, heat insulation, sound absorption and good electrical insulation performance. It can replace steel, aluminum, wood, cement, PVC and other traditional materials, and is widely used in the fields of construction, transportation, electronics and wind power equipment.
According to the research data of Tianfeng securities, the top three application fields of China's glass fiber products in 2018 were construction, electronics and transportation, accounting for 34%, 21% and 16% respectively. In addition, the new energy sector accounts for about 7%.
In 2020, the National People's Congress approved the new special bond amount of 3.75 trillion yuan, which is mainly used for infrastructure construction such as transportation, municipal administration and industrial park. This year, new projects will be started intensively; 5g market will be released gradually, and the long-term trend of AI application and automobile lightweight will provide solid support for the demand of glass fiber; in the aspect of wind power, some projects have started but have not yet entered the large-scale construction stage The stock wind power projects and this year's rush to load offshore wind power are expected to promote the further growth of glass fiber market demand.
On the supply side, China's glass fiber production capacity is about 5.5 million tons, accounting for about 70% of the global production capacity. According to the data, as of January this year, the production capacity of the top six glass fiber manufacturers, including China Jushi, Sinoma technology, Shandong glass fiber and Changhai Co., Ltd., accounted for about 80% of the total production capacity in China, and the glass fiber industry has basically formed an oligopoly competition pattern.
In terms of new production capacity, after the pain of disorderly expansion in the past, the expansion pace of glass fiber enterprises is obviously slow. According to the incomplete statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, the new production capacity of glass fiber yarn will be about 550000 tons and 330000 tons respectively this year and next year (without considering the capacity reduction caused by cold repair / shutdown), accounting for about 11% and 7% of the current production capacity.
Considering the cold repair and shutdown of glass fiber tank kiln, the impact of new glass fiber production capacity will be more limited, and it is expected that the glass fiber industry will maintain a relatively good supply and demand pattern in the next few years.