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Glass fiber market analysis
Writer:admin    Released:2019-04-10 17:46:38    Type:【L】【M】【S

Glass fiber is one of the few industrial products in China that is still at the forefront of the life cycle. The core reason is that most downstream segments of glass fiber are highly grown and encouraged by national policies, including wind power industry chain, automotive lightweight, PCB, etc.; and fiberglass as an alternative material, with excellent Physical and chemical properties, and cost-effective, in recent years, with the gradual expansion of downstream applications and the gradual migration of production capacity to China, China's glass fiber industry still has a strong "growth" beyond global growth.


Only for industrial products with “growth”, the market always habitually extrapolates the trend of the industry. When we see the long-term “growth” trend, we ignore the “cycle” that short-term industrial products cannot escape. Attributes. Since the beginning of 2018, with the optimism of the capital market on the overall supply and demand relationship of the glass fiber industry peaked, the new capacity of the industry has gradually ignited and put into production, and the scale of new capacity has been larger, and the industry has entered a round of price grinding. The bottom period. However, from the law of cyclical investment with demand growth, as long as the pessimistic expectation caused by the deterioration of supply and demand is gradually digested by the market, and the downside risk of product prices is controllable, even if there is no positive catalytic factor at both ends of supply and demand, for leading enterprises That is, it is still a good time to configure the left side. This paper analyzes the supply and demand situation of the current glass fiber industry and the pricing mechanism of different product categories in detail, in order to explore the current safety margin of the industry leader.


In terms of new capacity, this new round of production capacity is mainly from leading companies such as China's Jushi, and most of them are medium and high-end production capacity, rapid growth in demand in the segment and higher barriers to the industry (high technical R&D and supporting capacity) The long certification period and high user viscosity will weaken the impact of capacity shocks. The new medium and low-end production capacity (Chongqing Sanlei, etc.) is difficult to have a major impact on the industry in the short term due to differences in technology and cost. According to our estimates, the 19-year effective capacity increase due to new capacity in 18 and 19 years was 1.06 million tons, accounting for 13.2% of the global production capacity of 8.05 million tons (expected) at the end of 2018. Judging from the marginal new capacity, the 18Q3-19Q1 margin has been added, and it is the most stressful quarter. This is the core reason for the price pressure of some products (electronic yarn and alkali-free roving) from 2018Q3. However, due to the gradual decrease in the margin of new capacity in 19 years, the impact of new capacity on prices after 19Q2 will gradually disappear as demand increases.


From the perspective of demand, glass fiber demand has a greater correlation with global GDP and industrial added value, and has certain flexibility. As global GDP stabilizes, the growth rate of glass fiber demand follows its narrow range. We calculated that the global glass fiber production growth rate and global GDP growth rate (defined as alpha) showed an upward trend, and the alpha gradually increased from 0.81 in 2012 to 2.84 in 2017. According to the global GDP growth rate of 3.1% in 2019 (Moody's forecast), the global glass fiber demand growth rate is about 8.8% (assuming the alpha is constant). Even if the global economic growth rate exceeds the expected decline, the glass fiber demand will still be replaced by The effect maintains a more stable growth rate. Since 2019, PMI, a major economy other than the United States, has shown a downward trend. With the US economy from weakening and weakening the potential impact of trade friction on China and the United States, we believe that the global economic growth rate in 19 years Compared with the slowdown in 18 years, the growth rate of glass fiber demand will also decline, but it will maintain a relatively stable growth, and the structure still has a high growth rate (new domestic installed capacity for 19 and 20 years) It is expected to maintain a high increase, which will play a significant role in the demand for glass fiber. Therefore, from the perspective of overall supply and demand, due to the concentration of new production capacity in the second half of the year, the global economic slowdown in the first half of the year, the pressure on supply and demand in the overall glass fiber industry in the first half of 19 years is greater; The impact of capacity increase is expected to disappear quarter by quarter in 19 years. The supply and demand situation of the glass fiber industry in 20 years is expected to regain a tight balance.


From the perspective of different product pricing models, due to the high concentration of glass fiber industry (global and national CR3 are 48% and 63% respectively), and due to different technical capabilities, customer base, product structure, industry stratification is obvious, barriers It has already appeared that the competitiveness of large enterprises represented by China's boulder and Taishan fiberglass is hard to be shaken. The new capacity of this round is mainly concentrated in large enterprises and high-end products. The impact of small enterprises on mid-to-high-end prices is very limited. Through the analysis and judgment of the relevant product supply structure, we believe that after this round of supply shock, the downside pressure of the future standard non-alkali roving may be the largest; the price of electronic yarn has been fully released in 18Q4-19Q1, we believe that the downside Space is relatively limited; other medium and high-end categories (wind power yarns, thermoplastic yarns) due to strong demand for support, high concentration of suppliers, difficulty in customer certification and the use of viscosity and other factors make the overall downward price space is limited. This is significantly different from the historical price fluctuations caused by the single product structure.


Based on the expected assumptions for the future price of each fiberglass product, the possible profitability of China's Boulder in 2019 was measured. Based on calculations, under relatively pessimistic expectations (electronic yarns will fall by another 500 to 8,000 yuan/ton on the current price basis, and alkali-free rovings will fall to the small enterprise break-even line of 4,000 yuan/ton, wind power, thermoplastics and pipelines, etc. The average price of products fell by 5% year-on-year, with a decline of 300-400 yuan/ton. China Boulder is still able to maintain a profitability of more than 2 billion. It has a strong margin of safety as the industry leader; and the future through "internationalization" and "intelligence" The layout of the manufacturing, product structure is expected to continue to upgrade, the cost is expected to continue to optimize, China's core stone competitiveness is expected to further enhance. At the same time, we judged that the supply and demand relationship in the glass fiber industry will be more certain in 2020, and the leading production capacity will increase, and the “two materials merger” will further enhance the industry concentration and optimize the competition pattern in the future. We believe that the current safety margin of glass fiber faucets is high, which deserves the attention of the market.

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